Dear Daily Disaster Diary, August 03 2025

 

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

— Charles Darwin (attributed)

This quote, often associated with Darwin (though likely paraphrased), underscores a key theme of the Kamchatka 2025 earthquake: adaptability is survival — not brute strength, not technology, but readiness to act when the earth shifts beneath our feet.

Tsunami Waves Reach US West Coast After Earthquake off Russia

One of the Strongest Earthquakes Ever Recorded Shakes the Kamchatka Peninsula – A Deep Dive into Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and What You Should Do If One Strikes

By Adaptation-Guide | August 2025 | Earthquakes | Survival & Science Blog

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🌍 “Only Five Were Stronger”: A Rare Megaquake Hits Kamchatka

On the morning of July 29, 2025, the remote Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia was shaken by one of the most powerful earthquakes ever recorded in modern seismological history — a magnitude 8.8 quake that lasted several minutes and triggered Pacific-wide tsunami warnings, from Hawaii to California.

While the damage on land was limited thanks to Kamchatka's sparse population and strict coastal infrastructure protocols, the event raised serious questions about tsunami preparedness, seismic risk zones, and the potential global ripple effects of such rare but devastating natural disasters.

This wasn't just another tremor — it was a tectonic monster.

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📊 The 10 Strongest Earthquakes Since 1900

To put Kamchatka 2025 in context, here are the only recorded earthquakes stronger or equal in magnitude since 1900:

Magnitude	Location	Date
9.5	Biobío, Chile	May 22, 1960
9.2	Southern Alaska, USA	March 28, 1964
9.1	West of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia	Dec 26, 2004
9.1	East of Honshu, Japan	March 11, 2011
9.0	East of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia	Nov 4, 1952
8.8	Kamchatka, Russia	July 29, 2025
8.8	Off the coast of Maule, Chile	Feb 27, 2010
8.8	Northern Ecuador	Jan 31, 1906
8.7	Near Rat Islands, Alaska	Feb 4, 1965
8.6	India-China Border	Aug 15, 1950

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🧠 Understanding Earthquakes: What Is a Magnitude 8.8?

A magnitude measures the energy released during an earthquake. Importantly, the scale is logarithmic — meaning a magnitude 9.1 releases nearly three times more energy than an 8.8. That’s why the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake in Japan, though only 0.3 higher in magnitude, caused catastrophic destruction and a nuclear disaster.

In Kamchatka, the earthquake lasted two to three minutes, shaking the ground so powerfully that even automatic seismic sensors initially underestimated it, splitting the event into multiple “sub-quakes.” Only after full data review did USGS and Germany’s GFZ confirm the magnitude.

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📍 Depth and Fault: What Exactly Happened Underground?

The epicenter was located 21 km (13 miles) below the Earth’s surface — shallow enough to trigger a tsunami, but deep enough to reduce surface devastation. However, the quake wasn’t a single jolt — it occurred over a massive fault zone approximately 500 kilometers long and up to 50 kilometers deep, where two tectonic plates collided and slipped.

In this case, the Pacific Plate is sliding beneath the Eurasian Plate — a subduction zone, which is where all of Earth’s most powerful quakes happen.

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🌊 Tsunamis: What We Got vs. What Could’ve Happened

Despite early warnings, the tsunami waves that followed the Kamchatka quake reached only about 4 meters (13 feet) in height along local shores — far less than the 15-meter walls of water seen in 1952 during Kamchatka’s last megaquake.

Why?

According to GFZ researcher Marco Bohnhoff, the vertical displacement of the ocean floor — the key factor in tsunami formation — was smaller than models had assumed. The slip occurred deeper below the surface than expected. As a result, early tsunami simulations, which initially forecasted up to 3-meter waves in Japan, were later downgraded as real-time measurements came in.

This illustrates a key point: tsunami forecasting is not exact. It's based on past scenarios and quick modeling, which means early warnings always assume the worst-case — and should be taken seriously.

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🚢 Are Ships Safe During a Tsunami?

Surprisingly, yes — but only at sea.

Tsunamis are deceptively gentle in the open ocean, often passing under ships as a barely noticeable swell. The danger emerges near the coastline, where the wave slows down and piles up due to the shallowing sea floor.

That's why, in Hawaii and parts of Alaska, boat owners often head out to sea during tsunami warnings — it's actually safer than staying in harbor, where boats get smashed against piers.

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⚠️ Aftershocks and Foreshocks: Is More Coming?

Yes. And they’re already happening.

The USGS recorded over 90 aftershocks of magnitude 4.5 or higher in the days following the main event. This is standard for megaquakes. In fact, aftershocks can persist for months — even years.

Interestingly, this quake was also preceded by foreshocks — including a major magnitude 7.7 quake just weeks earlier. These smaller quakes may have redistributed pressure along the fault, making the main rupture inevitable.

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💡 What to Do If an Earthquake or Tsunami Strikes

Whether you're in California, Tokyo, Naples, or Lima, being ready matters. Here's your no-nonsense guide:

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🏠 If You're Indoors During an Earthquake:

• Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Get under a sturdy table or desk.

• Stay away from windows, bookcases, and hanging objects.

• Do not run outside — most injuries happen from falling debris.

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🏞️ If You’re Outside:

• Move to an open space, away from buildings, trees, and power lines.

• If near cliffs or mountains, beware of landslides.

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🌊 If You’re Near the Coast and Feel Strong Shaking:

• Don’t wait for official alerts. A tsunami could hit in minutes.

• Head immediately to higher ground — at least 30 meters (100 feet) above sea level if possible.

• Do not return until authorities declare it safe.

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🚘 If You’re Driving:

• Pull over safely, away from overpasses or bridges.

• Stay in your vehicle until the shaking stops.

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📦 Emergency Kit Essentials (Pack Now):

• Drinking water (3 days minimum)

• Non-perishable food

• Flashlight + spare batteries

• Emergency radio (battery or crank)

• First aid kit + personal meds

• Sturdy shoes + gloves

• Phone power bank

• Copies of important documents

• Local map + preplanned escape routes

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🧭 Lessons from Kamchatka 2025: Are We Ready?

This earthquake was a wake-up call.

It reminded us that the "Ring of Fire" — a massive belt of seismic instability circling the Pacific Ocean — is still very much active. With major population centers like Los Angeles, Tokyo, Jakarta, and Santiago sitting along this belt, the next big one is a matter of when, not if.

Governments must invest more in tsunami forecasting, seismic retrofitting, and early warning systems. Citizens must take responsibility for their own emergency preparedness — because seconds can save lives.

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🌐 Resources & Tools

• USGS Earthquake Map

• Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

• Red Cross Earthquake Preparedness Guide

• Global Seismic Hazard Map

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“Nature doesn’t negotiate. It doesn’t care if we’re ready — it just moves.”

Prepare today. Survive tomorrow.

🌀 This post is part of the “Disaster Files” series by Adaptation-Guide: your survival blog for an unstable world.

Follow us for more on disaster preparedness, climate adaptation, and the science of collapse.

yours truly,

Adaptation-Guide

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, August 02 2025

 

"It is not desirable to cultivate a respect for the law, so much as for the right."

— Henry David Thoreau, Civil Disobedience (1849)

Watson didn’t respect the law that protected poachers. He respected the whales.
And history tends to remember those who chose right over legal.

Interpol has been weaponized, Sea Shepherd founder Paul Watson says • FRANCE 24 

Interpol Drops Paul Watson — But Why Isn’t Japan on the Wanted List for Killing Whales?

By | Adaptation-Guide | 

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“A small justice victory for me, a major justice victory for the whale.”
— Captain Paul Watson

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Let’s get this straight:
Paul Watson, the legendary environmental activist and co-founder of Sea Shepherd, has just been removed from Interpol’s Red Notice list. 

After 14 years of being hunted across oceans like the very whales he defends, Interpol now admits what most of us already knew — this was a politically motivated stunt. 

A witch hunt. But here’s the real question no one in power wants to ask:

Why was Paul Watson ever on a most-wanted list… while Japan continues to kill endangered whales in a designated sanctuary with impunity?

That’s not rhetorical. Really. Why?

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The Real Criminals Are in Suits, Not Wet Suits

Watson allegedly obstructed a Japanese whaling vessel’s "official duties" — duties which, let’s not forget, involve illegally slaughtering whales in the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary. Let me repeat that for the back row:

Japan has been killing whales in a sanctuary. A protected zone. A place designated for species recovery.

That’s not civil disobedience. That’s state-sponsored ecological crime.

And yet, Japan has the gall to issue an international warrant through Interpol for the man trying to stop them?

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The Hypocrisy of the G7: Where Were Canada and Japan?

Canada and Japan are both G7 members — supposedly the world’s democratic champions, leaders of global cooperation, guardians of rule-based order. 

But when Watson, a dual Canadian-American citizen, was targeted by Japan's authoritarian-style vendetta for disrupting their barbaric slaughter, where was Canada?

Nowhere.

And where was Japan’s diplomacy when Watson sat in jail in Greenland for five months?

Still lobbying Interpol to keep him flagged while whales bled out on their decks.

Apparently, whale murder is fine, but getting in the way of whale murder is criminal.

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Let's Call This What It Is: Eco-Persecution

What we’re witnessing is not justice. It’s selective enforcement.

It’s the criminalization of conservation.

It’s Interpol being used as a tool of political harassment.

It’s global law enforcement spending decades pursuing a man who threw stink bombs at a ship while letting entire species drift toward extinction.

Interpol’s own commission now acknowledges that the “disproportionate nature of the charges” and the “political elements around the case” may have tainted the red notice. 

Other countries — beyond Denmark — refused to extradite him. That’s not silence. That’s a silent protest from the legal world.

Meanwhile, Sea Shepherd exposed Japan’s whaling for what it is: profit-driven butchery dressed up as "scientific research." 

An excuse so laughable the International Court of Justice ruled against it in 2014 — and Japan simply withdrew from the IWC to keep killing.

You know what that’s called in any other context?
A rogue state violating international norms.

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So, Who Should Really Be on Trial?

Paul Watson may be a controversial figure. He’s confrontational. He breaks the rules. He’s not always polite. But if protecting life in a marine sanctuary makes you a fugitive, we need to redefine the word "criminal."

Why isn't the Japanese Fisheries Agency on trial at The Hague?

Why isn’t there a red notice for the ship captains gutting whales in protected waters?

Why does the world tolerate this silence — and even fund it via G7 diplomacy?

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Final Thought: The World’s Tired of Cowardly Politics

If Canada had any spine, it would have intervened on behalf of one of its own citizens years ago.

If Japan had any credibility, it would admit its whaling operations are commercial, not scientific.

And if the G7 wants to preserve any shred of moral high ground, it needs to stop punishing environmentalists like terrorists while turning a blind eye to real ecological destruction.

So let me ask it again — not as a blogger, not as an activist, but as a human being:

Why is killing whales legal, but stopping the killing makes you a fugitive?

You tell me.

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Sources:

• Sea Shepherd Global

• International Court of Justice Ruling on Japan Whaling (2014)

• Interpol Public Statement on Paul Watson Decision (2025)

• Associated Press – July 2025 Coverage of Watson Case

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Join the fight:

🐋 Support Sea Shepherd

✍️ [Write to your MP or representative about ending whaling subsidies]

📢 [Share this blog and speak up for the voiceless]

Because the next time they come for the whales — or for the ones who defend them — it shouldn’t be in silence.

yours truly,

Adaptation-Guide

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, August 01 2025

 “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.”

-George Orwell, author of 1984

This quote captures the hypocrisy of those who weaponize "free speech" as a shield for disinformation while attacking accountability and truth. It reflects the twisted inversion seen in Jim Jordan’s crusade: a man long accused of silence in the face of abuse now demanding a global platform to condemn others for “censorship.”

How the Hell Is Jim Jordan Allowed in Europe? – A Transatlantic Farce in the Age of Scandal, Censorship, and Hypocrisy

© Adaptation-Guide

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Filed under: Free Speech, Scandal, and the Collapse of Western Decency

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Let’s play a quick game:

What do you get when you combine a Trump-era culture warrior, a digital censorship conspiracy theory, and a decades-old sex abuse scandal?

Answer: Jim Jordan in Brussels—preaching to the EU about “freedom of speech” with the moral authority of a matchbook in a forest fire.

While Donald Trump was busy cozying up to Scotch whisky magnates and sealing a new trade deal with the EU (read: backdoor influence campaign), his most loyal pitbull—Congressman Jim Jordan—was on a different mission. 

Jordan flew to Brussels to accuse the EU of silencing conservatives under the 2022 Digital Services Act (DSA), a law designed to reduce hate speech, disinformation, and illegal content online.

Yes, you read that right.
Jim "I-saw-nothing" Jordan—the man accused of ignoring rampant sexual abuse during his time as assistant coach at Ohio State—is warning Europe about dangerous silence and state censorship.

You truly cannot make this up.

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“Censorship!” screams the man who looked away from rape

Jordan’s performance was vintage GOP grievance theater: a righteous American crusader taking on those villainous “European bureaucrats” and their “global censorship agenda.” In a blistering pre-trip House Judiciary report (authored by Jordan’s own team), he accused the EU of launching a war on free speech—targeting conservative views, “patriotic usernames” like @Patriot90, and even implying that European law might influence what Americans say online.

Of course, the irony here is richer than a Swiss tax shelter. Jordan—a man who, according to multiple former OSU wrestlers, turned a blind eye to serial abuse by team doctor Richard Strauss—now claims to be the global guardian of moral expression. Jordan has never been accused of abuse himself, but four wrestlers did name him in a lawsuit for allegedly ignoring it. He calls it “a political hit job.”
Right.

This is the man who wants to ban EU officials from entering the U.S. if they “censor protected speech” online. Ironic, considering he’s part of the same party that tried to cancel Colbert, ban drag queens, and erase books faster than a Texas school board on meth.

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The GOP’s New Europe Strategy: Whine, Threaten, Repeat

Jordan’s Brussels tirade wasn’t a one-off. It echoed Trump’s Vice President, J.D. Vance, who in February told the Munich Security Conference that free speech was “under attack” in Europe—conveniently ignoring the fact that the U.S. has its own thriving censorship machine: powered by corporate monopolies, state legislatures, and a media ecosystem where saying “climate change” in a red state gets you fired faster than yelling “Fire!” in a theater.

Jordan claims the DSA targets “non-illegal speech”—stuff that's merely “controversial.” Like what, Jim? Holocaust denial? Hamas propaganda? The EU already made clear that its laws ban incitement to hatred, calls for violence, and Holocaust denial. Germany, for example, forbids swastikas. France bans racist speech. America? We let Tucker Carlson host prime time.

Jordan thinks this is “dangerous.” Europeans call it civilization.

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EU to Jim Jordan: We Have the Right to Regulate Our Own Internet

A European Commission spokesperson responded with bemused clarity:

“We have the sovereign right to legislate for our digital space. That has nothing to do with censorship.”

In other words:

“Mind your own collapsing democracy, Jim.”

It’s not as if the EU is pretending to be perfect. Meta and X (formerly Twitter) are already being investigated for failing to combat hate speech and disinformation. The DSA doesn’t ban speech—it mandates transparency, accountability, and effective reporting channels. Platforms must remove illegal content. That’s it.

But in Jordan’s fever dream, this is global tyranny. A “woke European plot” to silence red-blooded American patriots.

His evidence?
A faked workshop scenario involving a fake user named @Patriot90, who got flagged for potential hate speech.
That’s the whole smoking gun.

Forget the fact that Facebook helped foment a genocide in Myanmar, or that X failed to remove Hamas propaganda even after warnings. Jordan’s priority is that some hypothetical conservative could be temporarily flagged in a workshop case study.

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Why Is This Man Even Allowed in Brussels?

Here’s the kicker:
How the hell is Jim Jordan even allowed to show his face in Brussels, let alone lecture Europeans about free speech?

Let’s recap:

• Accused by multiple wrestlers of ignoring sexual abuse at Ohio State.

• Denies all knowledge, calls accusers “pawns.”

• Chairs a U.S. House Committee that’s trying to sanction foreign officials for protecting human dignity online.

• Promotes the same paranoid worldview that led to January 6.

• Aligns with a party that cancels drag brunches, school librarians, and AP Black History.

But sure. Let’s get mad about the EU banning Nazi memes.

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A Trade Deal or a Trojan Horse?

Jordan’s trip coincided with Trump’s new EU trade agreement—a coincidence? 

Maybe. But some fear it’s a Trojan horse, a way for the U.S. to pressure Europe into softening the DSA under threat of trade retaliation.

One U.S. lawmaker even said American companies were getting “frustrated” by EU demands for transparency. Translation: They don’t want to disclose how their algorithms work—even if those algorithms push genocide, extremism, or child abuse content.

So the GOP solution?
Threaten to blacklist EU “censors” from getting U.S. visas. Basically: sanction anyone who dares regulate Facebook.

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Welcome to Freedom™

You know what’s really happening here?

It’s not about free speech. It’s about power.
The American far-right wants to export their culture war to Europe:

• Distract from domestic scandals.

• Undermine European laws.

• Boost tech monopolies.

• Pretend to defend “free speech” while banning books at home.

Jim Jordan’s European crusade is the logical endpoint of a political culture that sees accountability as oppression, regulation as tyranny, and journalists as enemies.

And in that sense, Brussels wasn’t the stage for a transatlantic dialogue.
It was the theater of the absurd.

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Conclusion: A Nation of Gaslighters

Jim Jordan doesn’t care about Europeans, speech, or even the internet. 

He cares about power without oversight, and the ability to shield the powerful from shame.

Let’s be clear:
This is a man who couldn’t protect young athletes in his own locker room. Now he wants to protect “Patriot90” from having their tweets reviewed?

America, we are not the good guys in this story.

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Sources:

• EU Commission Press Briefings

• House Judiciary Committee Report, July 2025

• OSU Strauss Report, 2019

• F.A.Z. coverage, 2025

• Public records on Meta and X investigations under the DSA

• New York Times, “The GOP’s War on Censorship and the First Amendment” (2024)

• BBC, “Digital Services Act Explained”

• The Atlantic, “Jim Jordan and the Politics of Denial”

yours truly,

Adaptation-Guide

Famous Last Words...July 2025

 

French Agent Breaks Silence on Bombing Greenpeace’s Rainbow Warrior in 1985

The “Satanic Operation”: When a Western Democracy Turned to State Terrorism

By Adaptation-Guide – Unfiltered History Series: Lessons from Collapse

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July 10, 1985, 11:38 PM – Auckland Harbor:
A thunderous blast shatters the night. The French government, under Socialist President François Mitterrand, has just detonated a bomb on a peaceful Greenpeace ship. 

This was not an accident, nor a rogue action. This was a calculated act of state-sponsored terrorism—a “black op” carried out by French military intelligence. 

The target? The Rainbow Warrior, a Greenpeace vessel preparing to protest nuclear testing in the South Pacific. 

The goal? Silence dissent.

Forty years later, it remains one of the most chilling examples of democratic governments crossing the line from governance into covert warfare against civilians.

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The Crime Scene: A Ship, a Bomb, a Dead Man

The Rainbow Warrior had been docked in Auckland, New Zealand, on a peaceful mission: to support Pacific Islanders suffering from the effects of U.S. and French nuclear tests. 

Inside the ship, some crew members were celebrating with local Greenpeace activists. Others were asleep. 

Suddenly, a blast ripped open a hole in the hull—big enough to drive a car through. Captain Peter Willcox shouted, “Abandon ship!” All obeyed—except one.

Photographer Fernando Pereira, a father of two, went back to retrieve his expensive camera gear. 

Moments later, a second explosion sealed his fate. He drowned in the bowels of the ship. He was 35.

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The Mission: Protest the Poisoning of the Pacific

The Rainbow Warrior had left Jacksonville, Florida, in March 1985. Its route was set: first, the Marshall Islands—specifically the radioactive atoll of Rongelap, contaminated by 67 U.S. nuclear tests from 1946 to 1958. 

The people of Rongelap had been pleading for evacuation for years. Greenpeace answered the call.

Next on the route was Mururoa Atoll, site of ongoing French nuclear tests. 

Greenpeace intended to document and protest. But long before the ship reached its destination, French military ears were already twitching. 

French Admiral Henri Fages alerted his chain of command. The message reached Pierre Lacoste, head of France’s external intelligence agency (DGSE), and eventually landed on the desk of Defense Minister Charles Hernu.

The order was given: Neutralize the ship.

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Opération Satanique: A Black Op by a Western Ally

France’s DGSE dubbed the mission Opération Satanique. The irony is grotesque. Under the pretense of national security, an elite diving team was flown into New Zealand. 

Explosives and equipment were smuggled in via a chartered yacht from French New Caledonia. 

A spy, Christine Cabon, using the fake name “Frédérique Bonlieu,” infiltrated the Greenpeace office in Auckland. She fed intelligence back to Paris.

On July 10, two agents attached mines to the Rainbow Warrior’s propeller shaft and engine room. Then they fled into the night.

The first explosion wounded the ship. The second killed Fernando Pereira.

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The Swiss Passport Scandal and French Denials

New Zealand launched one of the most intensive investigations in its history. 

Witnesses had spotted two suspicious men unloading gear from a dinghy into a van. The license plate led police to “Swiss tourists” Alain and Sophie Turenge. 

But their passports were fake. In truth, they were French military officers: Captain Dominique Prieur and Major Alain Mafart.

France initially denied involvement. DGSE headquarters destroyed all evidence of the operation. But there were too many fingerprints in the water. 

In September 1985, French Prime Minister Laurent Fabius finally confessed:

“Agents of our secret service sank this ship. They acted on orders.”

President Mitterrand? He remained untouchable—for a time.

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Justice? Or Diplomacy at Gunpoint?

In November 1985, a New Zealand court sentenced Prieur and Mafart to 10 years in prison for manslaughter and arson. The trial lasted only 34 minutes. 

Why? Because France had threatened trade sanctions, including a European-wide ban on New Zealand lamb and butter.

Behind closed doors, a diplomatic deal was struck via the United Nations. 

By July 1986, the agents were released to serve their “sentences” on a French military base on Hao Atoll in the Pacific. The sentences were later cut to just three years.

Neither agent stayed put. Mafart was flown to Paris for “urgent medical treatment” in 1987—and never returned. Prieur was declared pregnant and quietly repatriated. 

Both were later promoted and decorated with medals.

No one else was ever prosecuted. 

No commanding officer was punished. 

The leader of the operation? He rose to become a senior defense advisor by 1993.

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Truth Leaks Through the Cracks

In 2005, Pierre Lacoste admitted what had long been denied:

“Yes, President Mitterrand was informed.”

A declassified intelligence report confirmed it. 

France’s head of state had personally authorized a military operation on the territory of an allied democracy, killing a civilian and sabotaging a peaceful protest.

Greenpeace received $8 million in compensation. 

New Zealand got a similar payout. 

The Pereira family received around €300,000—roughly what France paid for traffic death settlements. 

But the French government only apologized to New Zealand. 

Not to Greenpeace. 

Not to Pereira’s widow. 

Not to history.

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The Wreck and the Warning

Today, the Rainbow Warrior rests 30 meters deep off the coast of New Zealand, now a reef teeming with marine life. But its story is a cautionary tale that should haunt every democracy.

When national leaders authorize covert acts of sabotage on foreign soil...

When governments murder to silence protest…

When spies are rewarded and whistleblowers are jailed…

Then democracy has ceased to be a shield. It has become a weapon.

This is not just a scandal of the past. It is a warning for every activist, journalist, and dissenter today. 

From assassinations of exiles to spyware planted on journalists’ phones, state overreach is alive and operational.

If a “democracy” like France could bomb a peace ship in 1985 and get away with it—what makes you think it couldn’t happen again?

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🌍 Never Forget. Always Question.

🖊️ Want to learn more about state sabotage, eco-resistance, and survival in a collapsing world? 

Follow our blog at adaptationguide.com

📘 *Recommended reading:

• “Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage of the Rainbow Warrior” – David Robie

• “The Rainbow Warrior Affair” – New Zealand Government Dossier*

🛑 If you think Western democracies are immune to terror tactics—think again.

cheers,

Adaptation-Guide

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, July 30 2025

 

“We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.”

— Ayn Rand

This quote cuts to the core of the EU's carbon credit gamble. Outsourcing responsibility doesn't erase the problem—it just delays and distorts it. And in climate policy, delay is death.

France sets framework for EU's 2040 climate targets

Carbon Colonialism Reloaded: The EU’s 2040 Climate Plan Risks Repeating a Trillion-Euro Mistake

“The planet doesn’t care where emissions are reduced,” EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra recently claimed. But what if that logic, in practice, undermines the very climate targets it claims to support?

On July 3rd, the European Commission officially committed to a 90% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. 

It’s a bold target, made palatable to industry and hesitant member states like France and Poland by one strategic concession: Europe wants to outsource part of its emissions reduction—again.

To "not overburden" European consumers and industries, the Commission proposes that up to 3% of emissions reductions can be credited through climate projects in non-EU countries. 

These credits might include nature-based or technological carbon removals in the Global South. 

On paper, that sounds like pragmatic flexibility. In practice, it's dangerously close to repeating the catastrophic failure of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

The CDM Debacle: Lessons Ignored

The CDM, introduced under the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, allowed industrialized countries to invest in emission-reducing projects in developing countries and count those reductions toward their own targets. 

The result? A climate scam on a global scale.

A 2023 Nature meta-study estimated that only 16% of CDM carbon credits actually led to real emissions reductions. 

In other words, 84% of projects were either business-as-usual or outright fraudulent—projects that would have happened anyway, regardless of the credit mechanism.

Companies and countries padded their emissions ledgers while continuing to pollute. 

Billions of tons of CO₂ were emitted without accountability. The climate, of course, doesn't care about paper targets.

As Dr. Lambert Schneider of the Öko-Institut bluntly puts it: “There was no financial incentive for anyone to ensure that CDM certificates were of high quality.” 

Many projects passed the bar by cooking the books, running dual accounting systems—one to convince auditors, another for internal profitability analysis.

New Targets, Old Tricks?

The European Commission says this time will be different. The new system will be based on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, with "robust safeguards," including:

• Limits on double counting

• High-quality standards

• Requirements that projects be truly additional

• Independent verification

But the devil is in the details. And those details are still missing. The Commission promises a framework by late 2025. Meanwhile, the emissions time bomb ticks on.

Even if improvements are made, outsourcing emissions cuts still sends a dangerous message: Europe can avoid difficult domestic reforms by paying poorer nations to do the hard work.

Carbon Colonialism in Green Clothing

This is not just bad policy—it’s greenwashed neo-colonialism.

By allowing rich nations to "solve" the climate crisis on cheap land in the Global South, we risk continuing an extractive dynamic under a new banner: carbon colonialism. These credits commodify the biosphere of vulnerable countries, often without community consent or long-term benefit.

And the kicker? The 90% EU-wide target allows some countries—like Germany—to do even less. Berlin insists its 88% target remains untouched. That means others will have to do more, or more credits will be used.

We’re heading toward a scenario where emissions “disappear” on paper while remaining very real in the atmosphere.

The Political Shell Game

This isn't just an environmental issue—it's political sleight-of-hand.

Macron and Tusk nearly succeeded in delaying the climate package entirely, citing economic concerns. Industry lobbies have declared the 90% target “unrealistic.” The CDM redux is a strategic appeasement.

But climate action built on creative accounting, delay tactics, and economic coercion is not leadership—it’s evasion.

As Christoph Bals of Germanwatch warns: “Rechentricks und Etikettenschwindel dürfen den Klimaschutz nicht untergraben.” (“Accounting tricks and label fraud must not undermine climate protection.”)

What Needs to Happen Instead

If the EU is serious about its climate leadership, then:

1. No credits until 2036 is too late. Scrap them altogether. Focus on decarbonizing within Europe.

2. Invest in solidarity, not outsourcing. If the Global South needs support, let it be direct climate financing—not carbon tradeoffs.

3. Legally bind national targets. Don't let wealthier states dodge obligations through statistical averages.

4. End fossil fuel subsidies. Europe still spends billions annually subsidizing the industries it claims to regulate.

Final Thought: The Climate Doesn’t Forgive Math Tricks

If we fail now—again—it won’t be for lack of technology or treaties. It will be because we chose easy optics over hard change.

In 2040, the air won’t be cleaner because Europe bought a certificate in Brazil. The climate doesn’t care about targets. It reacts to physics.

And physics doesn’t negotiate.

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Sources:

• Nature (2023): Study on CDM Effectiveness

• FAZ: EU Climate Target Coverage (German)

• Öko-Institut on Carbon Markets

• Germanwatch Analysis on EU Climate Policy

yours truly,

Adaptation-Guide

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, July 29 2025

 “A time comes when silence is betrayal.”

-Martin Luther King Jr.’s words during the Vietnam War resonate powerfully with the EU’s paralysis and complicity.

Twenty-five countries, including UK, France, call for immediate end to Gaza war

Europe's Middle East Paralysis: A Union Divided, Dealing with Criminals in Power

By Adaptation Guide – Disaster Files: Geopolitics Edition

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The European Union proudly calls itself more than the sum of its parts. In Brussels, it is hailed as a compromise engine, a supra-national alliance that transforms 27 states’ divergent ideas into collective policy. 

But that noble vision crumbles when it reaches the powder keg of the Middle East. There, Europe is not a union — it is a scattered field of irreconcilable historical guilt, selective empathy, geopolitical impotence, and moral failure.

United in Words, Paralyzed in Action

When Hamas launched a brutal terror attack in autumn 2023 and Israel responded with relentless bombings in Gaza, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell criticized the indiscriminate Israeli bombardments. 

In response, some diplomats from Germany and Austria simply shrugged: “Well, he’s Spanish.”

Spain, after all, is seen as naturally sympathetic to the Palestinian cause — a nation whose post-colonial identity still echoes with anti-imperialist tones. 

Meanwhile, German Commission President Ursula von der Leyen rushed to express unconditional solidarity with Israel. 

Not just Germany, but also Austria, Hungary, and Romania — countries historically complicit in the Holocaust — view support for Israel not as policy, but as Staatsräson (reason of state). 

This is not diplomacy. This is inherited guilt masquerading as moral clarity.

Meanwhile, nations like Ireland, Sweden, and Slovenia — shaped more by their struggles against colonialism than by complicity in genocide — express solidarity with stateless Palestinians. 

Most of the EU remains awkwardly wedged between these camps, paralyzed by consensus rules that demand unanimity where none exists.

Ideals vs Interests

But here’s the thing: the EU’s Middle East dilemma isn’t just moral or historical. It’s strategic.

The conflicts in Gaza and Iran directly threaten EU interests. Red Sea shipping is under siege by Iran-backed militias. A collapse of the Iranian state could unleash another refugee wave towards Europe. 

And for over a year, Gaza’s agony has stoked both antisemitism and Islamophobia across European cities — eroding the social fabric of nations already struggling with polarization.

And yet, for all this, the EU remains a bystander. Sweden proposes sanctions on Israeli far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir — men who have openly called for Gaza’s destruction and Palestinian expulsion. But such sanctions won’t happen. 

Why? Because EU sanctions require unanimity, and countries like Hungary block them reflexively. Even suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement — due to blatant violations of human rights clauses — is dead on arrival.

Empty Declarations, Zero Power

When Iran was attacked by Israel in a shadow war, and when Iran’s nuclear program once again emerged as an existential threat, EU foreign ministers gathered for a video conference. They declared that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and that diplomacy is the only answer. But diplomacy without leverage is fantasy.

Estonian Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas spoke fine words, but the EU has no teeth to back them. No enforcement mechanism. No cohesive strategy. No political will. Just a bureaucratic echo chamber of “statements” and “concerns.”

Contrast this with the Ukraine war. Painful, slow, and riddled with contradictions — yes. But in that case, Europe managed to act, to send aid, to form a stance. On Israel-Palestine? Nothing. The EU is not a geopolitical actor. It is a geopolitical commentator.

And Then There’s Netanyahu

Let’s cut through the polite fiction: one of the central actors in this Middle Eastern drama — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — is not just controversial. He is an indicted criminal, still on trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.

Since 2017, Netanyahu has been investigated in Case 1000 and Case 2000 for accepting lavish gifts and attempting to manipulate media coverage through corrupt legislative deals. In 2019, he became the first sitting Israeli prime minister to be formally indicted. If convicted, he faces a decade in prison. Yet this is the man the EU cannot bring itself to criticize in action.

The irony is chilling: Europe, for all its talk of democratic values, is effectively shielding a man under active criminal prosecution — whose government includes ministers calling for ethnic cleansing — while wagging fingers at less friendly regimes.

Democracy Doesn't Excuse Criminality

This isn’t just about Netanyahu. Across the globe, democratically elected leaders — from Modi in India to Erdoğan in Turkey, Orban in Hungary, Trump in the U.S., and Netanyahu in Israel — are weaponizing democracy to shield autocracy. Elections alone do not confer legitimacy. Criminals can win ballots, too.

Netanyahu is not just a man with legal problems. He is the architect of a hardline, increasingly illiberal regime in Israel. His far-right allies openly call for apartheid policies, and his government is presiding over a campaign in Gaza that even European officials privately describe as “collective punishment.” Yet there will be no sanctions, no accountability, and no leverage — just more EU handwringing while the region burns.

Conclusion: A Union of Spectators

The EU is not neutral. It is inert. Its inaction is not diplomacy; it is complicity. Its indecision is not balance; it is paralysis.

As Gaza starves and burns, as Iran teeters, as antisemitism and Islamophobia rise at home, the EU remains a geopolitical toddler — full of opinions, short on action, and terrified of offending any member state’s ghosts.

It is time for Europe to confront an uncomfortable truth: you cannot export stability by appeasing instability. You cannot claim moral high ground while tolerating impunity. And you cannot build peace while protecting politicians whose hands are dirty with both corruption and blood.

This isn’t just about Israel or Palestine. This is about whether Europe can ever be more than a broken mirror — fractured by its past, reflecting nothing but its fear of its own reflection.

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Sources:

• EU Foreign Affairs Council statements, 2023–2025

• Haaretz, Times of Israel, and Al Jazeera reporting on Netanyahu’s trial

• Amnesty International & Human Rights Watch reports on Gaza

• European Council voting records

• European Parliament debates and resolutions on Israel-Palestine

yours truly,

Adaptation-Guide