“Germany is not governed by a lack of knowledge, but by a lack of courage: the numbers are clear, the risks are known — only the decisions are missing.”
- adaptationguide.com
Germany’s Lost Year: An Unfiltered Reckoning
The Promised Turning Point That Never Came
Germany was promised a reset. A Kurswechsel. A political reboot after years of drift, denial, and bureaucratic self-soothing. Friedrich Merz entered the Chancellery with the language of urgency and the posture of a man who claimed to understand that Germany was no longer merely wobbling—it was slipping.
Eight months later, the verdict is unavoidable: the reset never happened.
If one is generous—very generous—2025 might be described as a year of reluctant realization. The problems have grown so large, so visible, so impossible to hide behind committees and coalition compromises, that even this government could no longer pretend they did not exist. A few gestures followed. A few corrections. A sharper tone.
But let’s be clear: recognition is not reform. And Germany has once again mistaken the former for the latter.
Migration: When Humanitarian Rhetoric Collides with Arithmetic
For years, German politics treated mass migration as an administrative inconvenience—something that could be “managed” indefinitely with more paperwork, more funding, more moral posturing. Hundreds of thousands of arrivals per year? No problem, supposedly.
Reality disagreed.
Only now has a basic truth begun to resurface in mainstream politics: permanently high inflows overwhelm a country—financially, administratively, socially. This is not ideology. It is math.
Yes, there were adjustments in 2025:
More border controls
Faster asylum procedures
A tougher rhetorical line
All of that was overdue. And all of it remains insufficient.
Germany recorded six-figure asylum applications yet again—the thirteenth consecutive year in which the country effectively grew by the population of a major city through migration alone. No society absorbs that without consequences. Not for residents. Not for newcomers.
Because here is the taboo sentence German politics still avoids: humanity requires order. A state that does not enforce its own rules ultimately erodes the very legitimacy of protection it claims to provide. When everything becomes exceptional, nothing is sustainable.
The Welfare State: Magical Thinking Masquerading as Compassion
If migration policy shows hesitant insight, social policy shows almost none.
Pensions. Basic income. Health insurance. Everywhere the same pattern:
Costs explode
Demographic support erodes
Political courage evaporates
The governing logic remains painfully simplistic: redistribute more, hope harder. As if demographics could be negotiated with transfers. As if arithmetic could be shamed into submission.
This is not solidarity. It is intergenerational negligence.
A welfare state that pretends population aging can be neutralized by money alone loses touch with reality. Generational justice is not a slogan—it is a calculation. Yet instead of picking up a calculator, Merz’s cabinet reached once again for the oldest German governing instrument of all: postponement.
No Growth, No Base, No Illusions
A functional welfare state requires one non-negotiable foundation: a productive economy.
Germany does not currently have one.
The country is now in its third consecutive year of recession. Investment is drying up. Confidence is collapsing. And despite grand announcements, economic leadership remains timid, fragmented, and reactive.
A “reform autumn” was announced. It never arrived.
Instead, Germany got what it always gets in moments of decline:
Minor reforms
Major press releases
Billions in spending with no structural spine
Eight months into the new government, economic policy still feels leaderless—afraid of conflict, allergic to disruption, and paralyzed by electoral anxiety.
Five Indicators That Germany Is Not “Fine”
1. Stagnation Is the New Normal
After two years of contraction, Germany technically returned to growth in 2025. The increase? 0.2%, according to the IMF. That is not recovery. That is statistical noise.
While the U.S. and China regained momentum after the pandemic, Germany’s economic output remains stuck around 2019 levels. Six lost years. No excuses left.
2. Industrial Decline—At the Core
Germany’s industrial base, once its global calling card, is shrinking again. High energy costs and regulatory paralysis are driving production elsewhere. Industrial output is expected to fall another 2%—the fourth consecutive year of contraction.
This is not transformation. This is erosion.
3. Exports Are Failing Where Growth Happens
Exports to the U.S. fell nearly 8%. To China, more than 12%. China—once Germany’s industrial growth engine—is now building what it used to buy.
China is no longer Germany’s top customer. It ranks sixth.
That is not a fluctuation. That is a structural warning.
4. The Labor Market Is Frozen, Not Healthy
Unemployment sits at 6.1%, deceptively stable. But stability here is stagnation. Layoffs are being delayed, not avoided. Job mobility is collapsing. The labor market, as Germany’s own employment agency put it, is “stiff as a board.”
If you lose your job now, finding a new one is increasingly unlikely.
5. Debt Without Direction
Germany borrowed massively—€140 billion in 2025 alone, plus a €500 billion special fund. Infrastructure was promised. Growth was promised.
Reality: less than half of the funds went into new projects. The rest backfilled existing spending. Economists call it what it is: a shell game.
No strategy. No focus. No upgrade.
The Real Scandal: Subsidizing the Wrong Future
Germany does not lack money. It lacks imagination and courage.
If unemployment is rising, why not:
Subsidize home-based camouflage, repair, and adaptation work—from climate resilience retrofits to decentralized manufacturing?
Reopen production lines at Bosch or Mercedes—not for prestige SUVs, but for drones, sensors, and resilient infrastructure tech?
A star on a drone is no longer science fiction—it is geopolitics.
Why not:
A Porsche-branded satellite for climate and weather prediction?
Industrial pride redirected toward planetary survival?
And for the love of reality: subsidize the right things.
Not diesel nostalgia. Not coal denial.
Subsidize:
Healthy food systems
Green energy at scale
Grid resilience
Heat adaptation
Water security
Public health
Local production
If the state intervenes—and it already does—it must stop propping up yesterday’s economy while pretending it is preparing for tomorrow.
The Final Warning
2025 was rich in insights.
The problems are named. The numbers are known. The risks are obvious.
What is missing is consequence.
A government that refuses to decide leaves the field open to those who offer simple answers and dangerous lies. Germany still has time. But 2026 cannot become another year of excuses, delay, and rhetorical anesthesia.
Decide—or be decided for.
That is the real choice now.
yours truly,
Adaptation-Guide
