ADAPTATION GUIDE

The Psychology Behind A Warming World

 

 I never think of the future. It comes soon enough.

- Albert  Einstein

 

Despite 28 climate conferences spanning the last thirty years, the CO2 curve shows only one direction – upwards. The 1.5-degree goal to curb global warming is still advocated by industry, politics, leading scientists, and prominent activists. 

Evolutionary psychology teaches us that we are born with basic emotion and motivation systems adapted to the survival challenges of the Stone Age. 

These reactions and behavioral impulses can be modified through cultural learning and to some extent through insight and willpower. However, this takes time and has limits. 

Only an eco-education dictatorship could potentially break these limits, but it would lead to socio-cultural collapse, and life would no longer be considered worthwhile.

If we must rely on democratic opinion formation and decision-making, then those advocating for asceticism should understand and respect the psychological realities of the broader population. 

Real politics must always consider real psychology. Some key evolutionary psychological dispositions include:

1. Short-Term Focus: In the Stone Age, people didn't live long. Enjoyment, consumption, and immediate relief held a higher value than well-being in an uncertain future. Motivating the human psyche regarding pressing present problems is crucial.

2. Abstract Nature of Climate Rescue: Saving the world's climate feels abstract and provides little sense of self-efficacy. CO2 is odorless, imagined future suffering lacks empathy, and actions with effects decades away don't provide a sense of accomplishment.

3. Tragedy of the Commons: Public goods, like the atmosphere, are at risk of overuse by free-riders. Establishing rules, controls, and sanctions is challenging globally. Climate rescue becomes an immense cooperation problem, converging towards an apparently unsolvable issue.

In times of real crisis, a vicious cycle emerges. The human psyche, in survival mode, shuts down higher cognitive functions, leading to tunnel vision and a stronger temptation for free-riding. 

The more significant the catastrophe, the fewer psychological possibilities exist for a global, cooperative solution.

This is evident in the current energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Old coal power plants in Europe are being reactivated. 

Without breakthrough innovations, another rise in CO2 is unavoidable, making the 2-degree goal unrealistic. Expect a temperature increase between 3 and 4 degrees.

People tend to perceive global challenges more negatively than the facts suggest. Complex problems with probabilistic outcomes and climate change consequences manifest over decades and centuries. 

Human adaptability and innovation capacities are often underestimated. We should focus more on protection, adaptation, and innovation.

Moreover, maintaining social peace requires a robust economy. Unilateral turbo-decarbonization in Norway or Europe could jeopardize this without making a significant global contribution. 

Technology transfer to developing countries, resource allocation for maximum global CO2 reduction impact, and realistic goals are crucial.

In conclusion, preventing catastrophes is essential, but we shouldn't develop paralyzing fear. People are adept at coping with disasters. The emphasis should be on protection, adaptation, innovation, and preserving the world as a livable place.