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 The improvement of understanding is for two ends: first, our own increase of knowledge; secondly, to enable us to deliver that knowledge to others.

- John Locke

Turbulence and Climate Change: What You Need to Know

Overview: Recently, long-haul flights have increasingly encountered turbulence, sometimes leading to emergency situations. Studies suggest that climate change plays a significant role in this trend. Turbulence, particularly Clear Air Turbulence (CAT), is becoming more common, which poses challenges for airlines and passengers alike.

What is Clear Air Turbulence (CAT)?

• Definition: CAT occurs in clear skies without any visible warning signs like clouds or storms. It can suddenly jolt an aircraft, causing discomfort or even injuries.
• Recent Incidents:
  • May 26: A Qatar Airways Boeing 787 Dreamliner experienced severe turbulence over Turkey, injuring 12 passengers.
  • March: Lufthansa Flight LH 469 encountered turbulence so severe that the Airbus A330-300 had to make an emergency landing in Washington. Seven passengers were hospitalized.

Impact of Climate Change on Turbulence:

• Jet Stream Changes: Climate change is causing the jet streams—fast-flowing air currents in the atmosphere—to shift and become more unstable. This increases the likelihood of aircraft encountering turbulence, particularly over the North Atlantic.
• Increased Turbulence Hours: Studies show a 17% increase in turbulence over the North Atlantic from 1979 to 2020. This rise correlates with climate change as jet streams meander more due to altered weather patterns.
• Economic Impact: Airlines face increasing costs due to turbulence, with estimates ranging from $150 million to $500 million annually in the U.S. alone. Additional turbulence-related delays and wear on aircraft further drive up these costs.

Measuring Turbulence:

• EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate): This unit measures the intensity of turbulence. As climate change progresses, scientists expect to use EDR more frequently to quantify turbulence events.

Tips for Passengers:

• Always Wear Your Seatbelt: Even when the seatbelt sign is off, it’s advisable to keep your seatbelt fastened during the flight. Just as you would wear a seatbelt in a car for safety, it’s crucial on a plane, too.
• Check Turbulence Forecasts: Websites like turbli.com offer turbulence forecasts up to 36 hours before your flight, allowing you to be more prepared.
• Choose Daytime Flights: If possible, opt for daytime flights. Night flights can be more stressful due to fatigue, making turbulence feel worse.

Easing Your Mind:

• Turbulence is Normal: Turbulence is a natural part of flying, similar to waves in the ocean. Modern aircraft are designed to withstand even severe turbulence, so your plane is safe.
• Rare Severe Turbulence: Although turbulence might feel intense, severe incidents that cause significant injuries are rare.

Solutions for Airlines:

• Turbulence-forecasting Technology: Airlines can use advanced forecasting tools, like those developed by the University of Reading, to avoid turbulence and choose smoother flight paths. This not only improves passenger comfort but also reduces fuel consumption and carbon emissions.

Conclusion: While turbulence may be becoming more common due to climate change, there are ways to minimize its impact. Passengers can take simple precautions, like wearing seatbelts, while airlines can adopt new technologies to avoid rough air. Remember, turbulence is a normal part of flying, and with proper measures, it’s nothing to fear.