Dear Disaster Diary, 

Where everything is bad it must be good to know the worst.

- Francis H. Bradley

An Ode to the 4th of July

On this day of freedom and reflection,
We face the shadows of our own creation.
The problems we're facing as a nation right now are structural,
Demanding radical solutions, truths fundamental.

One party delves deeper into a universe,
Of delusion, disinformation, a curse.
Human beings, still hunter-gatherers at heart,
Struggle to foresee, to play the long-term part.

Our brains, wired for immediate threats,
Fail to see the cave collapsing in regrets.
The world unready to slow climate’s pace,
Nor to live with the changes we must face.

Cities warming at twice the global rate,
Air conditioning helps, but fuels the state.
Imagine a power outage, heat wave severe,
A catastrophe that’s ever so near.

Trees, nature's gift, cool and store carbon,
Scrub air, nurture life, and help us harden.
Yet each year, cities lose 36 million strong,
Despite efforts to plant and right the wrong.

Preparing for the last disaster we’ve known,
Leaves us unprepared for the next storm blown.
The lessons from the extreme weather parade,
Show the U.S. unready, foundations decayed.

Electric grids, sewers, forests in need,
Of fortification, revamp, and clear heed.
But there's a limit to how much we can adapt,
If emissions aren’t cut, resilience entraps.

Heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires in extreme,
Make adaptation alone a fading dream.
On this day of freedom, let’s pledge anew,
To face reality, and truth pursue.

For if we’re to honor this land so grand,
We must act now, with a united hand.
Let this be our anthem, a call to unite,
For the future we cherish, for the battles we fight.

 Dear Disaster Diary,

Fate is the friend of the good, the guide of the wise, the tyrant of the foolish, the enemy of the bad.

- William Rounseville Alger

.......oh, Canada......🎂

Reassessing the Economic Effects of Climate Change

Introduction

In recent years, the conversation around climate change and its economic impacts has evolved significantly. Initially, economist William Nordhaus's 1992 work laid the foundation for understanding how climate change would affect the global economy. He estimated that for every degree of global warming, the world economy would shrink by 1 to 3 percent. This view, while concerning, suggested manageable challenges. However, a new paper from the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is challenging this established perspective.

A New Perspective on Climate Change

Harvard University's Adrien Bilal and Northwestern University's Diego Kanzig have released a groundbreaking study, "The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature." This research indicates that the economic effects of climate change might be much more severe than previously thought. They argue that extreme weather events, such as storms and droughts, which are becoming more frequent due to climate change, play a significant role in economic damage. These events do not respect national borders and are closely linked to global temperature changes.

Key Findings

Bilal and Kanzig's study highlights several critical points:

1. Underestimation of Damage: Previous studies focused mainly on how rising temperatures directly affect productivity. However, the new research shows that extreme weather also depletes capital, leading to greater economic losses.

2. Significant Economic Impact: The study estimates that by the end of this century, the world economy could be 31 percent poorer due to climate change. Additionally, they argue that the world economy would be 37 percent larger today if global warming had not occurred since 1960.

3. Slowing Global Growth: The global growth rate has been slowing, especially in Western countries. This trend might be partially attributed to the economic effects of climate change.

4. Future Economic Challenges: The number and severity of extreme weather events and zoonotic pandemics (diseases transmitted from animals to humans) have been rising. These trends are likely to continue, leading to higher costs for repairing infrastructure and increased social and healthcare expenses.

Implications for Canada and the World

The study suggests that the economic impact of climate change will be felt globally, with no country exempt. Rich countries, including Canada, will not escape unscathed. In fact, developed nations have more infrastructure that can be damaged by extreme weather, and their older populations are more vulnerable to its effects.

Carbon Tax and the Social Cost of Carbon

One of the significant takeaways from the study is the need to reassess the carbon tax. Canada's current carbon tax is $80 per tonne, but previous estimates of the social cost of carbon ranged from $100 to $200. Bilal and Kanzig argue that the true cost should be much higher, potentially over $1000 per tonne. They suggest that failing to pay this cost now will lead to much higher expenses in the future, likening it to the perpetual economic strain of a domestic war.

Conclusion

In summary, the new research from the NBER presents a stark warning about the economic effects of climate change. The findings suggest that climate change will significantly reduce global economic output, with severe implications for all countries, including Canada. This study emphasizes the importance of taking immediate and substantial action to combat climate change, highlighting that the costs of inaction will be far greater in the long run. 

As we celebrate Canada Day, it's crucial to reflect on these findings and consider the steps needed to protect our future economic well-being.