Dear Daily Disaster Diary, Sept. 4th 2024

 Common sense is the knack of seeing things as they are, and doing things as they ought to be done.

- Josh Billings

Dear Daily Disaster Diary,

Are you ready for the next COP/Circus show in Azerbaijan? The rallying cry, "The 1.5-degree limit must be upheld!" has echoed from climate activists for years. 

This goal, enshrined in the Paris Agreement, represents the world's ambition to limit global temperature rise. The "1.5 degrees" has become shorthand for preventing the worst impacts of climate change. 

Beyond this threshold, we face devastating floods, storms, extreme heatwaves, rampant hunger, and the spread of diseases. However, the 1.5-degree slogan inadequately conveys these dangers. 

It offers a single number to describe climate change and assumes a level of understanding about climate dynamics that most people lack. A 1.5-degree increase in Norway is far different from 1.5 degrees in Namibia. 

In short, this number fails to communicate the vastness of the problem and obscures how rapidly our window of opportunity is closing. 

We need a more tangible, less abstract target for climate action that people can rally around. Sea level rise would be just that; we should set a firm upper limit on its increase. 

This is a far more visible indicator of climate change than any temperature metric. It paints a vivid picture: abandoned cities, eroded coastlines, contaminated drinking water, sewage backups, destroyed habitats, and skyrocketing insurance claims. 

The limit would be around half a meter (19,68 inches), roughly corresponding to the 1.5-degree target. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that even if temperatures stay at or below 1.5 degrees, global sea levels will rise between 30(11,81 inch) and 70(27,55 inch) centimeters by 2100. 

If emissions remain unchecked, we could see up to two meters (78,74 inch) of rise. 

This increase will intensify the risk of storm surges, push water further inland, and inundate communities that have never experienced flooding before. 

Roads will become impassable, power and sewage plants will be submerged, communication systems will fail, and healthcare systems will collapse. 

Over 10% of the global population lives in low-lying coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise. Major global cities like Miami, Mumbai, New York, Shanghai, and Tokyo are at high risk. 

In the United States, a study found that nearly half of coastal communities have failed to make any preparations. The result? Higher costs for taxpayers. 

Retrofitting with levees, new bridges, or other flood control systems is typically far more expensive than building resilient infrastructure in the first place. A clear upper limit on sea-level rise would help the public visualize the looming losses. 

Rising seas provide stark images of the threat: before-and-after photos of coastal erosion, flooding during fair weather, economic damages in coastal areas, or maps showing the expanding reach of storm surges—including the encroachment of the sea into inhabited areas. 

Around the globe, nations have failed to adequately account for the long-term risks of climate change. This failure has led to behaviors that ignore the dangers of a higher waterline, such as continuing to develop flood-prone areas. 

An official limit would encourage more informed decisions by identifying coastal infrastructure as immediately at risk. 

Nations should take the lead in pushing for a cap on sea-level rise. Not least, adopting such a limit at this year’s climate conference would emphasize that the existential threat to small island states and thousands of coastal communities is being taken seriously.

We live in hope.

Sincerely,

A.G.

Dear Daily Disaster Diary, September 3rd, 2024

 The world hates change, yet it is the only thing that has brought progress.

- Charles F. Kettering

We might not be spiraling into chaos overnight, but let’s not kid ourselves—the risks of climate change are undeniably growing. 

Yes, the science is clear, but now there's something else creeping into the picture: a deep sense of overwhelm that only worsens as crisis after crisis hits. 

Sure, it's tempting to sugarcoat things with uplifting stories about climate action. And yes, that's important—because hysteria paralyzes. But let's be real: nice stories alone won't cut it.

What we really need is a combination of new mindsets, financial support distributed fairly, and, most crucially, a collective will. Right now, we’re witnessing an epic battle between different factions—those clinging to outdated notions of security and those pushing for urgent transformation. 

And guess what? This tug-of-war keeps getting bogged down by narrow-minded focus on their respective “clients” or interests.

Here’s the deal: Climate protection isn’t just a chore—it’s an opportunity, both technologically and economically. And yes, success stories and positive examples can help open people’s eyes. 

But let’s not fool ourselves. The harsh realities of the climate crisis won’t just disappear with a smile and a wave. Every single opportunity that brings us closer to stability needs to be seized.

Here’s a concrete win: In January 2016, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania saw the closure of the Shenango Coke Works Facility—one of the largest coal processing plants. The result? 

An immediate drop in air pollutants like sulfur dioxide and arsenic. And here’s the kicker—a significant reduction in hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases followed. 

A study in Environmental Health Research found that from 2016 to 2018, hospital stays due to heart disease dropped compared to the three years prior. Right after the plant closed, emergency visits for other causes saw no significant change.

Now, while these results don’t prove causality, there’s a strong statistical link between the plant’s closure and the improved health of the surrounding community. That’s not just a story—that’s a call to action!

So, let's stop dithering and start making bold moves. The bitter truth of this crisis is here, and we can’t ignore it. 

Every step towards the stability we crave counts. Let’s get it done!

Your Weekly Navigator,

 The improvement of understanding is for two ends: first, our own increase of knowledge; secondly, to enable us to deliver that knowledge to others.

- John Locke

Turbulence and Climate Change: What You Need to Know

Overview: Recently, long-haul flights have increasingly encountered turbulence, sometimes leading to emergency situations. Studies suggest that climate change plays a significant role in this trend. Turbulence, particularly Clear Air Turbulence (CAT), is becoming more common, which poses challenges for airlines and passengers alike.

What is Clear Air Turbulence (CAT)?

• Definition: CAT occurs in clear skies without any visible warning signs like clouds or storms. It can suddenly jolt an aircraft, causing discomfort or even injuries.
• Recent Incidents:
  • May 26: A Qatar Airways Boeing 787 Dreamliner experienced severe turbulence over Turkey, injuring 12 passengers.
  • March: Lufthansa Flight LH 469 encountered turbulence so severe that the Airbus A330-300 had to make an emergency landing in Washington. Seven passengers were hospitalized.

Impact of Climate Change on Turbulence:

• Jet Stream Changes: Climate change is causing the jet streams—fast-flowing air currents in the atmosphere—to shift and become more unstable. This increases the likelihood of aircraft encountering turbulence, particularly over the North Atlantic.
• Increased Turbulence Hours: Studies show a 17% increase in turbulence over the North Atlantic from 1979 to 2020. This rise correlates with climate change as jet streams meander more due to altered weather patterns.
• Economic Impact: Airlines face increasing costs due to turbulence, with estimates ranging from $150 million to $500 million annually in the U.S. alone. Additional turbulence-related delays and wear on aircraft further drive up these costs.

Measuring Turbulence:

• EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate): This unit measures the intensity of turbulence. As climate change progresses, scientists expect to use EDR more frequently to quantify turbulence events.

Tips for Passengers:

• Always Wear Your Seatbelt: Even when the seatbelt sign is off, it’s advisable to keep your seatbelt fastened during the flight. Just as you would wear a seatbelt in a car for safety, it’s crucial on a plane, too.
• Check Turbulence Forecasts: Websites like turbli.com offer turbulence forecasts up to 36 hours before your flight, allowing you to be more prepared.
• Choose Daytime Flights: If possible, opt for daytime flights. Night flights can be more stressful due to fatigue, making turbulence feel worse.

Easing Your Mind:

• Turbulence is Normal: Turbulence is a natural part of flying, similar to waves in the ocean. Modern aircraft are designed to withstand even severe turbulence, so your plane is safe.
• Rare Severe Turbulence: Although turbulence might feel intense, severe incidents that cause significant injuries are rare.

Solutions for Airlines:

• Turbulence-forecasting Technology: Airlines can use advanced forecasting tools, like those developed by the University of Reading, to avoid turbulence and choose smoother flight paths. This not only improves passenger comfort but also reduces fuel consumption and carbon emissions.

Conclusion: While turbulence may be becoming more common due to climate change, there are ways to minimize its impact. Passengers can take simple precautions, like wearing seatbelts, while airlines can adopt new technologies to avoid rough air. Remember, turbulence is a normal part of flying, and with proper measures, it’s nothing to fear.