We live in a time when automation is ushering in a second industrial revolution.
- Adial E. Stevenson
The end of the combustion engine? | FT Energy Source
From our series: "Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?" Part 1.
When was the European Union founded? And how long has the EU known that combustion engines are bad for the environment? Decades of inaction, endless delays, and pretending as if we all hit the jackpot in the lottery—this is nothing short of an outrage that, in a true democracy, would have led to resignations.
Where were you, Mrs. von der Leyen, between 2010 and 2017 when the minimum wage hovered around a pathetic seven euros? Ah, you were one of the advocates claiming that higher wages would destroy the economy!
Millions of people couldn't and still can't afford a new combustion engine car, yet they need one to make a living.
Do you, Mrs. von der Leyen, do your own grocery shopping? Have you seen the prices? If a used electric car by 2035 costs as much as a full shopping cart today, then maybe—just maybe—I see a chance for success!
The Ban on Combustion Engines: A Disaster in the Making
The end of combustion engines is leading to new conflicts. The EU Commission President wants to pull the auto industry out of its slump with a "strategic dialogue."
Europe’s auto industry is in panic mode. Something has to change—many politicians agree on that. And when things get dramatic, you can bet that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is never far away. "We are acting quickly to address the problems," she said on Thursday in Brussels.
She has initiated a "strategic dialogue" involving commission members, industry representatives, and unions. These working groups will attempt to fix a crisis that the EU itself created—because it approached the decarbonization of transportation with good intentions but a complete lack of realism.
By 2035, only vehicles running on CO2-neutral fuels will be allowed in the EU. As of now, that means electric cars, since their technology is far more advanced than any other alternative.
But the entire plan is already on the verge of collapse. Consumers simply aren’t buying enough EVs.
In 2024, their share of new car registrations in the EU was just 13.6%. The dream of decarbonization is drifting further into the distance.
Billions in Fines Await the Auto Industry
For automakers, this will be a financial catastrophe. Many of them, especially Volkswagen, are failing to meet the EU’s strict CO2 fleet targets.
Others, like BMW, are managing—at least for now. But exceeding the limits means paying billions in fines.
The manufacturers can either buy CO2 certificates or take more drastic measures—like slashing production. Either way, it’s draining their financial reserves at a time when they need every cent to develop affordable electric cars.
The crisis is worsening because the EU’s CO2 restrictions are tightening each year. Auto manufacturers are stuck in a dead-end.
And it’s not just the EU Commission that’s panicking—so are the governments of major car-producing nations.
This week, three French ministers warned in the business newspaper "Les Échos" that the car industry is facing a "historic crisis." Over the past 20 years, France's car production has already collapsed from 3.3 million units to just 1 million. The ministers are desperate to prevent auto manufacturers from having to pay the absurdly high fines that the EU has planned.
But so far, the Commission shows no sign of backing down. And honestly, why should they? That would be unfair to manufacturers like BMW, which actually played by the rules.
Still, the 2035 combustion engine ban remains a complete fantasy. Most car buyers are still making rational decisions, and for them, EVs simply don’t make sense.
Whether rightly or wrongly, they see the cost as too high, the range as too short, and charging as too inconvenient.
The EU’s bureaucrats believed the transition from combustion engines to electric mobility would be a smooth, linear process. The reality? Anything but.
The EU’s Grand Plan: Make Gasoline Unaffordable
The EU does have one trick up its sleeve: CO2 pricing. Starting in 2027, gas and diesel retailers will have to pay for the greenhouse gases their fuels emit. This will make gasoline-powered cars more expensive to operate and make EVs seem relatively cheaper.
To soften the blow for low-income households, the EU plans to introduce a "social fund." But here’s the kicker—nobody knows how it will actually work.
A Tax Revolt in the Making?
This gives critics an easy target. Last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk—no radical, but a centrist politician—slammed the CO2 pricing plan with fiery rhetoric.
He argued that rising costs would turn the population against their governments. And he’s right. As the deadline for the combustion engine ban approaches, the battle in Brussels is intensifying.
The European People’s Party (EPP), the largest faction in the EU Parliament, has declared the ban an "industrial policy mistake" and wants to scrap it. However, German parties CDU and CSU—both members of the EPP—are adamant about keeping the CO2 pricing scheme in place.
This sets them apart from Tusk’s Civic Platform, which also belongs to the EPP but opposes the pricing mechanism.
Welcome to the EU’s Self-Made Chaos
So here we are—trapped in a classic EU mess. The Commission dreams of a carbon-free future while ignoring the reality that ordinary Europeans can’t afford it.
Automakers scramble to comply, even as consumers reject the very vehicles they are being pushed to buy. And politicians? They bicker over ideological purity while industries collapse.
If the EU actually wanted to succeed, they would focus on making EVs genuinely affordable and practical instead of forcing an entire continent into an economic and political nightmare.
But that would require common sense. And in Brussels, common sense is the rarest resource of all.
